Retargeting Took the Credit. YouTube and Brand Search Earned It.
Ember Commerce
The challenge
Ember Commerce was relying heavily on last-click attribution, which significantly overstated the impact of paid social retargeting campaigns. As a result, the team continued increasing spend on lower-performing bottom-funnel campaigns while reducing investment in awareness channels that were actually driving new customer demand.
The solution
BaselineMix modeled all six of Ember's marketing channels against 52 weeks of historical spend and revenue data to separate the sales retargeting actually caused from the sales it was simply the last ad before. The budget optimization engine then delivered weekly media allocation recommendations based on where each channel's spend was starting to stop paying off.
What the model found
The analysis revealed that branded search was generating far more incremental revenue than attribution reports had previously shown. The model also uncovered a three-week carry-over effect from YouTube campaigns that traditional attribution tools completely missed.
What changed
Retargeting spend was reduced and moved to YouTube and brand search; the next quarter's plan was built from the model's recommendations instead of platform-reported ROAS.
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